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North Carolina was prepared for disaster
New Jersey

North Carolina was prepared for disaster

The climate deck has become so crowded that even places that appear safe are experiencing dangerous impacts.

Four people walk across a muddy suburban street intersection and inspect flood damage in Asheville, North Carolina, after Hurricane Helene
Sean Rayford/Getty

As Helene swept through western North Carolina late last week, rain fell hard and fast enough to wash away mountainsides. Rivers burst their banks, part of one of the state’s most important highways collapsed, cutting off communities. Floods threw mud and dirt into buildings. Cars, trucks, dumpsters, entire houses and bridges – these and more were swept away by the floodwaters as if they weighed nothing. Much of what could remain in place was submerged in brown water. Thousands of people in Asheville remain without power and a boil water advisory is in effect. There is evidence that the city’s water system was severely damaged. The River Arts District in Asheville was destroyed. At least 35 people have died in the region, and with cell service out, hundreds more are missing.

When a hurricane barrels toward land, “we really focus on the coast,” Michael Lowry, a hurricane specialist in Miami, told me as Helene made its way to the U.S. mainland. But the impact inland “cannot be overstated,” particularly in heavily forested areas where fallen trees can worsen the destruction. Before the massive hurricane even made landfall, North Carolina had suffered miserable rainfall. By Friday morning, rivers in western North Carolina were already reaching record levels, and officials feared for a time that a dam on Lake Lure, which is surrounded by dense forest, would fail. By the time Helene reached the mountains, it had already weakened to a tropical storm, but so much more water was just too much.

Excessive rain can weaken the ground and cause once solid ground to slide at an alarming rate; Scientists have linked both extreme rainfall and an increased risk of landslides to climate change. (For example, a recent study found that the rains that triggered a series of landslides in India this summer that killed hundreds of people were 10 percent heavier due to human-caused climate change.) That Helene the West North Carolina’s impact so dramatically could force more people to incorporate these dynamics into their understanding of climate impacts. For years, climate scientists have warned that sea level rise would worsen coastal flooding during hurricanes, and indeed Helene broke storm surge records along Florida’s Gulf Coast, some of which were set just a year ago. But one of the places still suffering the worst from Helene’s wrath is the southern Appalachians.

Helene had some characteristics of a hurricane in a warm world, such as rapid intensification. The hurricane drew fuel from unusually warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico, which likely helped extend the storm’s lifespan. For example, a study that examined hurricanes that made landfall between 1967 and 2018 found that modern hurricanes spread further inland because they contain more moisture that accumulated during their journey over warmer seas. Hurricanes now subside more slowly after moving inland.

Like some powerful hurricanes, Helene produced wet weather in North Carolina that arrived well ahead of the main system. This particular storm front delivered enough rain to trigger a rare warning from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration about the risk of flooding in urban areas, including parts of the southern Appalachians. The rains “have saturated the terrain and flooded the river’s tributaries,” and the coming flood would only make the situation worse, “even well after landfall,” the agency warned as Helene approached.

The ensuing floods have been compared to the dramatic Asheville flood of 1916, caused by successive tropical storms, which killed 80 people and served as a benchmark for all subsequent flooding events in the city. According to one historical account, “the flood eroded away the ground beneath the mountain railway passes, leaving tracks that looked like sky-high trapezoidal railways.” This type of disaster does not depend only on human-caused warming: heavy precipitation is always influenced by natural weather patterns and coincidences. But climate change is opening the tap even further.

As temperatures rise, more water evaporates from the Earth’s surface and its oceans. A warmer atmosphere can retain more moisture and this excess moisture can lead to more frequent and intense rainfall. These conditions include severe rainy weather, tropical storms, and Category 4 hurricanes. A passing hurricane can cause even greater damage if the land below is already soaked and its waterways are filled to the brim. A mountainous and temperate region like western North Carolina may not have to worry as much about rising sea levels or scorching temperatures – Asheville has been described as a climate paradise because it is relatively protected from the most commonly cited effects of global warming, such as extremes appears to be heat and hurricane winds. But these places are still grappling with excessive rain and the resulting landslides, a deadly combination of land and water that can cause entire communities to lose ground.

As flooding recedes in North Carolina, more storms are already brewing in the Atlantic, and forecasters are tracking which hurricanes could pose a threat to the Gulf Coast. If a storm strengthens into a hurricane and makes landfall, it will be the fifth hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. this year, tying the record of six landfalls in a single season. There doesn’t appear to be a connection between climate effects and landfalls, but too many landfalls is concerning because the storms are stronger than they should be. Parts of the southeast still cleaning up after Helene could be inundated again, with waves crashing on their doorstep as if the sea itself were knocking. A stretch of Florida’s coast was still recovering from two other hurricanes when Helene passed through. The Atlantic hurricane season still lasts two months. It can still result in communities being flooded and stranded, with water levels so high that it is difficult to imagine how it can drain away and what will be left behind when it drains away.

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